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Las cifras del Desempleo

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Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Lun Oct 08, 2012 2:25 pm

Bueno, tras la comida de arepas que le dio Romney a Obama en su debate, los lambeojos del gabinete presidencial, o imprudencial, necesitaban encontrar alguna manera de flotar la imagen del presidente hundido... El Departamento del Trabajo de la ex-cabildeadora de el Consejo Nacional de la Raza, Hilda Solis, saco del bolso una increible mejoria en las cifras del desempleo... No solo esta mejoria fue la mas grande en mas de tres decadas, sino que la misma no correlaciona con indicadores economicos alguno. Esto es interesante ya que el desempleo es lo que llaman en en dificil un "lagging indicator" que requiere crecimiento en la economia... Algo que no ha estado ocurriendo en la economia estancada.

Nah, The Bureau of Labor Statistics Wouldn’t Fudge Unemployment Numbers Right Before a Presidential Election, Would They?

by Bill Sardi

It’s a fact, you’re not going to get re-elected if unemployment rates are high. So just fudge the numbers and re-correct them at a later date (Jan. 2013) which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) typically does on a regular basis.

The latest new jobs numbers, this time for September ’12, reflects what America is becoming – a country that is fooling itself with phony numbers that go unchallenged by the nation’s news press. For example, 2.2% is the target rate of inflation published by the nation’s central bank – The Federal Reserve. But the actual rate of inflation is more like 9.3% (ShadowStats.com).

With President Obama reeling backwards from the fresh thrashing in the first televised Presidential debate of the campaign, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stepped up to the plate and released a made-to-order report that says the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly from 8.1 to 7.8%.

David Leonhart and Mark Lander, writing at a New York Times blog, said without questioning: "Jobs Report Brings Unexpected Good News for Obama." CNN also punted and republished the government numbers without question, saying "Unemployment rate tumbles" in their headline story. The Washington Post also sang the same wrong song.


PBS, which depends upon federal government funding, said: "A rare banner day on the jobs front, at least at first glance. The official unemployment rate dropped below 8 percent to 7.8…"

Call the nay-sayers "conspiracy theorists"
Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, former General Electric CEO, took the brunt of the left-wing critics for questioning the BLS new jobs numbers. After the BLS announced that the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 percent, the lowest level since January 2009, Welch tweeted: "Unbelievable jobs numbers… these Chicago guys will do anything… can't debate so change numbers."

Dan Eggen writing for the Washington Post said: "Welch is getting a lot of attention for an unfounded accusation that the Obama administration somehow cooked the positive jobs numbers issued Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics." Eggen then went on to point a finger at the last President who attempted to fudge employment numbers – a Republican (Richard M. Nixon). Talk about partisan political reporting.

No phony numbers here

The Christian Science Monitor reported that Labor Secretary Hilda L. Solis "appeared on CNBC to refute allegations that any massaging of the data had occurred." She said: "You know I am insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional civil service organization where you have top economists working" at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), she said. "It is really ludicrous to hear that kind of statement."


Steve Haugen, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "flatly dismissed the idea that there was any way the White House or Obama campaign could have had a hand in how the numbers turned out," said a CBS News report. "The data are not manipulated for political reasons. I've been involved in the process myself for almost three decades. There's never been any political manipulation of the data, period," Haugen told CBSNews.com.

Of course, the liberal Huffington Post went all out in its defense of the Obama Administration jobs numbers in its headline report entitled: "Here's Why The Jobs Report Conspiracy Theory Is Baseless."

The HuffPost report said:

"Some conservatives have accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of cooking the September jobs report numbers to help Obama. But given how the government collects and reports the monthly data, those claims are probably baseless.

But it just isn't so. The monthly jobs numbers are put together by career government analysts, using long-established statistical methods that are shielded from political influence. Until recently, the BLS was run by an appointee from the Bush administration, and it currently has no political appointees.

"…..The short story is that the job truthers' claims are baseless. No conspiracy here."

What is the target number for new jobs?

In January of 2012 the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that 20 million new jobs will be needed over next decade. That amounts to 166,666 per month, assuming more job losses don’t raise that figure.

Marc Chandler, writing at BusinessInsider.com says: "The US needs to create around 170-200k net new jobs a month to drive the unemployment rate toward 7%.

Ezra Klein, citing the Hamilton Project (Brookings Institute), wrote in January 2012 at the Washington Post, said adding 200,000 jobs per month it would take till 2024 for the labor market to recover.

Doublespeak
The news media as well as the President himself are guilty of doublespeak here.

Nate Silver, writing a headline report entitled "Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month" at a New York Times blog in Feb of 2012, said: "Here’s a spoiler: reports that say more than 150,000 jobs have been created can generally be interpreted as good news for Mr. Obama. Reports that come in at under 150,000 jobs could put him on a trajectory toward defeat."

Republican Senator John Thune said: "today's job figures are well below the 250,000 to 500,000 jobs per month that Vice President Biden forecast (in April of 2010)."

Here is a video clip of President Obama taking credit for 290,000 new jobs in April of 2010 (go to 0:46 minute point). He went on to say in that taped speech that: "While (those numbers are) welcome, we have a lot of work to do." The September ‘12 gain in new jobs was miserable 114,000. How do you take credit for 290,000 new jobs and then think 114,000 new jobs over two years later will buoy you to re-election?


Peter Morici, writing at TheStreet.com, says: "In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, nearly the entire reduction in unemployment from its 10% peak in October 2009 has been accomplished through a significant drop in the percentage of adults participating in the labor force – either working or looking for work. Were the adult participation the same today, the unemployment rate would be 9.8%. The most effective jobs program appears to be to convince working-aged adults they don't need a job."

Matthew Yglesias, writing at Slate.com, says the "BLS reports today that the economy added 114,000 new jobs (with, I remind you, a +/- 100,000 confidence interval) in September." What was that margin of error again?

Authoritative explanation of how the jobs numbers were contrived

Economist John Williams of ShadowStats.com in his most recent October 5, 2012 commentary #473 surmises how the BLS produced "deliberately-inconsistent numbers" regarding new jobs.

Williams has consistently reported the Federal Government fudges numbers that measure the economy and jobs. While the BLS says the unemployment number is 7.8% for Sept. ’12, ShadowStats says it is really 22.8%. I’ll let Mr. John Williams do the rest of the talking here:

"The August-to-September change in the headline unemployment rate almost certainly was not a 0.3% decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) knows the reported change in unemployment was wrong – other than by extreme coincidence – and it knows what consistent reporting actually showed. Only politics prevents the BLS from releasing the correct number, whether the unemployment rate actually declined, held even, or rose as predicted by consensus forecasters. The lack of transparency here in the data preparation allows for direct political manipulation.


The problem is that the BLS knowingly has been preparing the seasonally-adjusted headline unemployment numbers on an inconsistent and non-comparable basis for some time. The September number was prepared using a different set of seasonal factors than was used in coming up with the August number. The reporting difference can be large, when proper consistent month-to-month changes are used.

The BLS has the correct number and could publish it…. Now would be a particularly good time for the BLS to come clean on its unemployment estimates, even if the numbers "confuse" data users."

Williams goes on to say:

"As has been discussed frequently, reporting of month-to-month changes in both payroll employment and the unemployment rate is of such poor quality that the headline labor data have become worthless as indicators of current economic activity. Problems with seasonal-factor distortions – created by the economic collapse and exacerbated by the use of concurrent seasonal factors – have widened the likely margins of reporting error in the payroll survey to something beyond the usual +/- 129,000 jobs at the 95% confidence level (see Hyperinflation 2012), and the monthly headline unemployment numbers simply no longer are comparable on a month-to-month basis.

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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Jue Nov 15, 2012 2:49 pm

Y sigue la mata dando... Tras la victoria de Obama, se desinfla el circo de pulgas de la buena labor economica que hacia el Idolo... Ahora resulta que es un desastre dentro de otro...

Sandy yields surge in jobless claims

WASHINGTON - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits surged last week to a 1 1/2-year high, a sign Superstorm Sandy had dented the economy by leaving tens of thousands of people out of work.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was well above the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 375,000.

An analyst from the department said several states from the mid-Atlantic and Northeast reported large increases in claims due to Sandy, a mammoth storm that slammed into the East Coast in late October.

The deadly storm left millions of homes and businesses without electricity, although the economic impact of the storm is likely to be temporary.

Economists expect the storm could shave as much as half a percentage point from economic growth in the fourth quarter. However, any lost activity should be made up early next year.

Retail sales data on Wednesday pointed to a softening in U.S. consumer spending early in the fourth quarter. Overall retail sales fell as Sandy slammed the brakes on automobile purchases last month.

The surge in new jobless claims last week was the biggest one-week increase since September 2005.

The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smoothes out volatility, rose 11,750 to 383,750. Economists generally think a reading below 400,000 points to an increase in employment.

Continuing claims for jobless benefits rose 17,750 in the week ended Nov. 3 to a seasonally adjusted 3.255 million, the highest level since July 2008, the Labor Department said.

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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Mar Dic 04, 2012 5:14 pm

Una razon mas para no importar mas graduandos de otros paises... Esto del Blog del NYT:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/degree-inflation-jobs-that-newly-require-b-a-s/?hp


December 4, 2012, 7:00 am

Degree Inflation? Jobs That Newly Require B.A.’s
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
CATHERINE RAMPELL
Dollars to doughnuts.
Despite the sob stories you hear about unemployed college graduates, bachelor’s degrees have actually gotten more valuable over time. The wage gap between the typical college graduate and those who have completed no more than high school has been growing for the last few decades. In the late 1970s, the median wage was 40 percent higher for college graduates than for people with more than a high school degree; now the wage premium is about 80 percent.

Some of that wage premium has to do with the changing nature of American jobs and the skills (and social networks) attained in college. Some of it may have to do with a change in the mix of students who go to college and those who don’t. As college enrollment becomes more expected of high school students — as of October 2011, 68.3 percent of 2011 high school graduates were enrolled in college — the shrinking group of students forgoing college may have other characteristics that are associated with lower wages.

At the very least it seems as if more employers are using bachelor’s degrees as a signal of drive or talent, regardless of of the relevance of the skills actually learned in college.

That is one implication of an analysis from Burning Glass, a company that analyzes job ads from over 20,000 online sources ranging from major job boards to small and midsize employer sites. The company’s chief executive, Matthew Sigelman, says that employers are increasingly requiring college degrees for positions that did not traditionally require higher education.

I asked his company to compile a list of occupations that have shown the most “up-credentialing” in the last five years — that is, occupations whose job ads were significantly more likely to name college diplomas as a prerequisite in 2012 than they were in 2007.
Here is a look at the 10 occupations with the biggest percentage increases in requiring a college degree.

Occupation title 2007-12* Growth in % of Posted Jobs Advertising for a Bachelor’s ----------Degree 2007% of Ads Requiring Bachelor’s Degree 2012* ---------% of Ads Requiring Bachelor’s Degree

Dental Laboratory Technicians ---------- 175%---------- 12%---------- 33%
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders---------- 83%---------- 6%---------- 11%
Medical Equipment Preparers---------- 55%---------- 11%---------- 17%
Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products---------- 43%---------- 54%---------- 77%
Electronics Engineering Technicians---------- 38%---------- 21%---------- 29%
Dental Hygienists---------- 38%---------- 40%---------- 55%
Architectural Drafters---------- 37%---------- 41%---------- 56%
Cargo and Freight Agents---------- 36%---------- 33%---------- 45%
Photographers---------- 36%---------- 25%---------- 34%
Claims Adjusters, Examiners and Investigators---------- 35%---------- 48%---------- 65%

*2012 data is from Nov. 1, 2011, to Oct 31, 2012



Some of these occupations may actually require more advanced skill sets than they used to. Others may require the same old duties and skills, but employers assume that people who don’t go to college in this day and age must be inferior candidates. There’s also still an oversupply of workers, so employers know they can afford to be picky.

A lot of jobs on this list fall into various categories of logistics. The people at Burning Glass say that college-level technical training, and not just possession of a fancy sheepskin, may be newly important in a lot of these positions.

“Supply chain management has gotten more complex, and companies have started to bring in quantitative expertise into roles like ‘purchasing manager’ that formerly would have been filled face-to-face by someone on the floor,” Mr. Sigelman said.

Many administrative jobs — human resources manager, property manager, school administrator, desktop publisher, security manager — also appear on the full list.

These tend to be jobs that require fewer technical skills, so it’s not clear why a college-level education would suddenly become more important — except maybe as a sorting device for narrowing down the deluge of résumés to the most qualified (or overqualified) applicants.

In most of these administrative occupations, hiring has fallen over the last few years, as you can see in the columns further to the right showing the total number of jobs posted. That could also mean that the openings that are left — the ones that have been harder to fill even when workers are abundant — are disproportionately the ones actually do require more advanced skill sets.

For other categories of jobs, it’s harder to tell whether the “up-credentialing” reflects changing job duties or mere degree inflation.

A lot of the jobs listed are medical technician positions, for example, which typically require some kind of technical skills that can be achieved with postsecondary schooling like an associate’s degree or a certification of some kind. It’s unclear whether these jobs have gotten more technically sophisticated in the last five years, or whether employers just want to narrow down the pool of potential applicants to those perceived to be more ambitious.

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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Mar Dic 18, 2012 4:38 pm

Un estudio sobre el desempleo verdaderamente preocupante para cualquier persona que carezca de estudios...

http://cis.org/amnesty-and-the-employment-picture-for-less-educated-workers

Amnesty and the U.S. Labor Market
The Employment Picture for Less-Educated Workers

By Steven A. Camarota December 2012 PrintShareThis

The Employment Picture for Less-Educated Workers
Download a pdf of this Memorandum


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Of the estimated 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States, seven to eight million are thought to be holding a job.1 Rather than enforce immigration laws and encourage them to return home, President Obama and some in Congress have promised to push legislation that would provide work authorization and legal status to illegal immigrants. Most research indicates that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have no more than a high school education.2 The president and his political allies seem to believe that the kinds of jobs done by such workers are plentiful. However, the findings of this report show that the employment picture is bleak for less-educated native-born Americans, who are the most likely to compete with illegal immigrants for jobs. (All figures are seasonally unadjusted.)

Among the findings:

•In the third quarter of 2012, the standard unemployment rate (referred to as U-3) for U.S.-born adults who have not completed high school was 18.5 percent.


•Using the broader measure of unemployment (referred to as U-6, which includes those who want to work but have not looked recently, and those forced to work part-time), the unemployment rate for U.S.-born adults who have not completed high school was 30.8 percent.


•The U-3 unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers who have only a high school education was 10.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012. Using the U-6 measure, it was 18.1 percent.


•The total number of U.S.-born working-age adults (18 to 65) not working was 50.8 million in the third quarter of 2012. This is up 8.9 million compared to the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began.


•If we consider all American citizens (U.S.-born and naturalized), the number of working-age adults not holding a job was 54.7 million.


•More than half (27.7 million) of working-age American citizens not holding a job have no education beyond high school. This is a huge pool of potential less-skilled workers.


•The figures for less-educated citizens not working do not include the 3.2 million forced to work part-time, nor do they include the 6.7 million teenagers (16 and 17) not working. They also do not include the nearly 170,000 less-educated U.S. citizens over age 65 who are actively looking for a job.
Introduction

All of the available evidence indicates that the employment picture for those with relatively little education remains dismal. Things are particularly dire for those under age 30 who have no more than high school education. Prior research indicates that illegal immigrant workers are overwhelmingly those with relatively little education. While it would be a mistake to think that every job taken by an illegal immigrant is a job lost by a native, it would also be a mistake to imagine that allowing illegal immigrants to stay permanently in their jobs has no impact on labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers. The findings in this analysis make clear that Americans with relatively little education have been hit very hard by the current downturn.

Unemployment (U-3 & U-6). The left side of Table 1 shows the unemployment rate for all workers using the standard U-3 measure. To be unemployed using the standard U-3 measure, one has to have looked for a job in the last four weeks. Table 1 shows that unemployment varies significantly by group. Unemployment is very high for teenagers, those without a high school diploma, and young high school graduates. One of the most important findings in Table 1 is that those natives who are young (18 to 29) with a high school education have an unemployment rate similar to those who have not completed high school (all ages) — 18.5 percent vs. 17.2 percent.

Another important finding is that unemployment is much higher for young and less-educated U.S.-born minorities than for the population as a whole. For example, U-3 unemployment is 29.5 percent for U.S.-born blacks (all ages) who have not completed high school, much higher than for all natives without a high school education. For young blacks (18 to 29) who have completed high school, unemployment is also much higher than for all young U.S.-born workers with the same education. Unemployment for U.S.-born Hispanics also is somewhat higher than for all U.S.-born workers with the same education.

The right side of Table 1 shows unemployment using the broader measure (referred to as U-6) that includes those who want to work, but have not looked recently, and those forced to work part-time. (The methodology section at the end of this report summarizes how U-3 and U-6 are calculated.) The broader measure of unemployment shows things are very bleak for American workers. For those without a high school education (all ages), U-6 unemployment is 30.8 percent, compared to 18.5 percent for U-3 unemployment. For young high school graduates, the U-6 measure is 29.9 percent compared to 17.2 percent using the U-3 measure.

The U-6 measure shows things are also dismal for U.S.-born minorities. For U.S.-born Hispanics without a high school education the U-6 unemployment rate is 32.5 percent. For young U.S.-born Hispanic high school graduates, the U-6 unemployment rate is 28.8 percent. For U.S.-born blacks the situation is even worse. These young and less-educated workers are the ones most likely to compete with illegal immigrants for jobs. And they are the ones most likely to benefit from having fewer illegal immigrants in the country.

Not Working. The U-3 and U-6 measures both deal with those who express some interest in working. Some of those included in the U-6 measure are considered to be outside of the labor force because they have not looked for a job in the last four weeks. Thus if someone has not looked recently for a job and has given up entirely looking for work, then he or she would not be part of the U-3 or even the U-6 measure of unemployment. The right side of Table 2 reports the share of working-age adults (18 to 65) not in the labor force. It also shows the number holding a job. Table 2 shows that in third quarter of 2012, nearly 41 million U.S.-born adults were not in the labor force — not working or looking for work. If we include the 9.8 million U.S.-born adults (18 to 65) who are unemployed, the total number not working would be 50.8 million, an increase of 8.9 million since the third quarter of 2007.

We can see the increase in the number not working by comparing Table 2 to Table 4. Table 4 shows the same information as Table 2 except that it is for the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began. There would seem to be a huge pool of legal workers available in the United States. Table 4 shows that in the third quarter of 2007, 73.6 percent of U.S.-born working-age adults were employed. In the third quarter of 2012, it was 69 percent. If we returned to the 2007 employment rate, roughly 7.5 million more U.S.-born adults would be working.

Conclusion

It is difficult to overstate the size of the pool of potential workers that now exists in the United States. If through enforcement a large fraction of illegal immigrants returned to their home countries rather than being allowed to stay with legal status, there would seem to be an ample supply of idle workers to replace them, particularly workers who have relatively little education. Of course, employers might have to pay more, and offer better benefits and working conditions in order to attract American citizens. But improving the living standards and bargaining power of the least-educated and poorest American workers can be seen as a desirable social outcome. The contention that there is a general labor shortage that has to be satisfied by giving work authorization and/or citizenship to illegal immigrants and increasing the number of immigrants allowed into the country seems entirely inconsistent with the available evidence.

Methodology

The data for all of the tables in this study come from the public-use files of the July, August, and September 2012 Current Population Surveys (CPS) and the July, August, and September 2007 CPSs, which are collected monthly by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Each CPS includes about 131,000 respondents, roughly half of whom are in the labor force. The tables presented here are reported by quarter. Quarterly data are more statistically robust, especially for smaller populations like immigrants and minorities, due to the inclusion of three months of data. Persons in institutions like prisons or nursing homes are not included in the CPS. The CPS is the nation’s primary source for unemployment and other labor force statistics. Like all government surveys, the data are weighted to reflect the actual size and demographic makeup of the U.S. population.

The government publishes employment statistics that are both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted from the survey. The figures in this analysis are seasonally unadjusted. Unadjusted figures are computationally simpler and easier for other researchers to replicate. In general, BLS does not provide separate estimates for the foreign-born (immigrants) and the native-born broken down by characteristics like education, race, and age. However, all CPS respondents are asked these questions. The Census Bureau defines the foreign-born as persons who are not U.S. citizens at birth, which includes naturalized citizens, legal immigrants who are not citizens (green card holders), temporary visitors and workers, and illegal immigrants. All figures for the total U.S. population (ages 16-plus) at the top of Tables 1 and 2 match those from the BLS.

Defining Unemployment. The standard measure of unemployment, referred to as U-3, takes the number of people who report that they are not working and have looked for a job in the last four weeks and divides it by the number actually working plus those looking. Those not actively looking for a job are not included in either the numerator or denominator when calculating the unemployment rate for U-3.

The broader measure of unemployment, referred to as U-6, is calculated differently. It divides the sum of the unemployed population, involuntary part-time workers, and marginally attached people (discouraged and other) by the civilian labor force (employed and unemployed) plus marginally attached workers. The column headings in Tables 1 and 3 show this calculation. An unemployed worker is someone who does not currently hold a job, but is available to work and has looked for a job in the previous four weeks. Marginally attached workers indicate that they want and are available for jobs, and they have looked for work in the past 12 months.3 However, they are not considered unemployed under the U-3 definition because they have not searched for a job in the previous four weeks. Involuntary part-time workers are those individuals who report that they are working part-time for economic reasons. They want and are available for full-time work, but must instead settle for part-time hours.4 Because the total U-6 measure includes the unemployed, those working involuntarily part-time, and those marginally attached to the labor market (discouraged and other), it provides a broad measure of problems in the U.S. work force.


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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Vie Mar 08, 2013 11:21 am

Decidi insertar este articulo, que para algunos tiene otras implicaciones, en este tema... Las acciones de la tesoreria bajo estaadministracion podrian degenerar en una crisis economica mundial con los detonantes sociopoliticos que eso podria desencadenar... De ocurrir esto, quizas los suecos deseen pedirle a Obama que devuelva su premio Nobel que todavia no ha podido sustentar con logros...

The only stock tip you will ever need: Watch the Dow
by Vivek Kaul Mar 8, 2013
Follow @firstpostin

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), America’s premier stock market index, has been quoting at all-time-high levels. On 7 March 2013, it closed at 14,329.49 points. This has happened in an environment where the American economy and corporate profitability has been down in the dumps.
The Indian stock markets too are less than 10 percent away from their all-time peaks even though the economy will barely grow at 5 percent this year.

In this scenario, should one dump stocks or buy them?
The short answer is simple: as long as the other markets are doing fine, we will do fine too. The Indian market’s performance is more closely linked to the fortunes of other stock markets than to Indian economic performance.
So watch the world and then invest in the Sensex or Nifty. You can’t normally go wrong on this.
Let’s see how the connection between the real economy and the stock market has broken down after the Lehman crisis.
The accompanying chart below proves a part of the point I am trying to make. It tells us that the total liabilities of the American government are huge and currently stand at 541 percent of GDP. The American GDP is around $15 trillion. Hence the total liability of the American government comes to around $81 trillion (541 percent of $15 trillion).

Source: Global Strategy Weekly, Cross Asset Research, Societe Generate, March 7, 2013
The total liability of any government includes not only the debt that it currently owes to others but also amounts that it will have to pay out in the days to come and is currently not budgeting for.
Allow me to explain. As economist Laurence Kotlikoff wrote in a column in July last year, “The 78 million-strong baby boom generation is starting to retire in droves. On average, each retiring boomer can expect to receive roughly $35,000, adjusted for inflation, in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits. Multiply $35,000 by 78 million pairs of outstretched hands and you get close to $3 trillion per year in costs.”
The $3trillion per year that the American government needs to pay its citizens in the years to come will not come out of thin air. In order to pay out that money, the government needs to start investing that money now. And that is not happening. Hence, this potential liability in the years to come is said to be unfunded. But it’s a liability nonetheless.
It is an amount that the American government will owe to its citizens. Hence, it needs to be included while calculating the overall liability of the American government.
So the total liabilities of the American government come to around $81 trillion. The annual world GDP is around $60 trillion. This should give you, dear reader, some sense of the enormity of the number that we are talking about.
And that’s just one part of the American economic story. In the three months ending December 2012, the American GDP shrank by 0.1 percent. The “U3” measure of unemployment in January 2013 stood at 7.9 percent of the labour force. There are various ways in which the Bureau of Labour Standards in the United States measures unemployment. This ranges from U1 to U6. The official rate of unemployment is the U3, which is the proportion of the civilian labour force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.
U6 is the broadest definition of unemployment and includes workers who want to work full-time but are working part-time because there are no full-time jobs available. It also includes “discouraged workers”, or people who have stopped looking for work because economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. This number for January, 2013, stood at 14.4 percent.

The business conditions are also deteriorating. As Michael Lombardi of Profit Confidential recently wrote, “As for business conditions, they appear bright only if you look at the stock market. In reality, they are deteriorating in the US economy. For the first quarter of 2013, the expectations of corporate earnings of companies in the S&P 500 have turned negative. Corporate earnings were negative in the third quarter of 2012, too.
The average American consumer is not doing well either. “Consumer spending, hands down the biggest contributor of economic growth in the US economy, looks to be tumbling. In January, the disposable income of households in the US economy, after taking into consideration inflation and taxes, dropped four percent—the biggest single-month drop in 20 years!,” writes Lombardi.
Consumption makes up for nearly 70 percent of the American GDP. And when the American consumer is in the mess that he is where is the question of economic growth returning?
So why is the stock market rallying then? A stock market ultimately needs to reflect the prevailing business and economic conditions, which is clearly not the case currently.
The answer lies in all the money that is being printed by the Federal Reserve of the United States, the American central bank. Currently, the Federal Reserve prints $85 billion every month, in a bid to keep long-term interest rates on hold and get the American consumer to borrow again. The size of its balance-sheet has touched nearly $3 trillion. It was at around $800 billion at the start of the financial crisis in September 2008.
As Lombardi puts it, “When trillions of dollars in paper money are created out of thin air and interest rates are simultaneously reduced to zero, where else would investors put their money?
All the easy money created by the Federal Reserve is landing up in the stock market.
So the stock market is going up because there is too much money chasing stocks. The broader point is that the stock markets have little to do with the overall state of economy and business.
This is something that Aswath Damodaran, valuation guru, and professor at the Columbia University in New York, seemed to agree with, when I asked him in a recent interview about how strong is the link between economic growth and stock markets? “It is getting weaker and weaker every year,” he had replied.
This holds even in the context of the stock market in India. The economy which was growing at more than 8 percent per year is now barely growing at 5 percent per year. Inflation is high at 10 percent. Borrowing rates are higher than that. When it comes to fiscal deficit we are placed 148 out of the 150 emerging markets in the world. This means only two countries have a higher fiscal deficit as a percentage of their GDP, in comparison to India. Our inflation rank is around 118-119 out of the 150 emerging markets
.
More and more Indian corporates are investing abroad rather than in India (Source: This discussion featuring Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma and the Chief Economic Advisor to the government Raghuram Rajan on NDTV). But despite all these negatives, the BSE Sensex, India’s premier stock market index, is only a few percentage points away from its all-time high level.
Sharma, Managing Director and head of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, had a very interesting point to make. He used the following slide to show how closely the Indian stock market was related to the other emerging markets of the world.

India’s premier stock market index, is only a few percentage points away from its all-time high level.
As he put it, “It has a correlation of more than 0.9. It is the most highly correlated stock market in the entire world with the emerging market averages.”
So we might like to think that we are different but we are not. “We love to make local noises about how will the market react pre-budget/post-budget and so on, but the big picture is this. What drives a stock market in the short term, medium term and long term is how the other stock markets are doing,” said Sharma. So if the other stock markets are going up, so does the stock market in India and vice versa.
In fact, one can even broaden the argument here. The state of the American stock market also has a huge impact on how the other stock markets around the world perform. So as long as the Federal Reserve keeps printing money, the Dow will keep doing well. And this in turn will have a positive impact on other markets around the world
.
To conclude let me quote Lombardi of Profit Confidential again “I believe the longer the Federal Reserve continues with its quantitative easing and easy monetary policy, the bigger the eventual problem is going to be. Consider this: what happens to the Dow Jones Industrial Average when the Fed stops printing paper money, stops purchasing US bonds, and starts to raise interest rates? The opposite of a rising stock market is what happens.
But the moral is this: when the world booms, India too booms. Keep your fingers crossed if the boom is lowered some time in the future.
Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek

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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Jue Mar 28, 2013 2:58 pm


Se exceden las cifras de desempleados... y sigue lagente gastando como si nada...





Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed More Than Forecast Last Week


Lorraine Woellert, Bloomberg Lorraine Woellert, ©2013 Bloomberg News


March 28 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, bringing a halt to the recent progress in the labor market.

First-time jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 357,000 in the week ended March 23, the highest level in more than a month, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 340,000. The four-week average climbed from the lowest level in five years.

Consumer spending has continued to climb even after lawmakers agreed to let the payroll tax rise by 2 percentage points in January, giving employers reason to retain staff. At the same time, stronger economic growth is needed to further reduce the pace of firings, add to payrolls and boost wages.

“We’re not making progress the way we’d like to,” said Robert Brusca, president of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York, who projected claims would climb to 350,000. “It’s still a very disappointing picture for jobs.”

The economy grew at a faster pace than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, reflecting a bigger gain in business spending and a smaller trade gap, a report from the Commerce Department showed today. Gross domestic product rose at a 0.4 percent annual rate, up from a 0.1 percent prior estimate and following a 3.1 percent gain in the third quarter.

Shares Rise

Stock-index futures were little changed after the reports, erasing earlier gains. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,557 at 8:50 a.m. in New York.

Economists’ claims estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 330,000 to 355,000 after an initially reported 336,000 in the prior period.

There was nothing unusual in last week’s data and no states’ figures were estimated, a Labor Department spokesman said as the report was released to the press. There were no comments linking last week’s jump in claims to the automatic federal government budget cuts that started taking effect this month, the official said.

With today’s release, the Labor Department issued its annual revisions reflecting tweaks in the way the claims data are adjusted for seasonal swings.

The less-volatile four-week moving average climbed to 343,000, up from 340,750, which was the lowest since 2008.

Continuing Claims

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 27,000 to 3.05 million in the week ended March 16, the fewest since June 2008. The continuing claims figure doesn’t include Americans receiving extended unemployment benefits under federal programs.

Those who have used up their traditional benefits and are collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 125,500 to 1.91 million in the week ended March 9.

The unemployment rate among Americans eligible for benefits held at 2.4 percent in the week ended March 16, today’s report showed.

Forty-four states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while nine reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth, measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report, accelerates.

Payroll Gain

Payrolls increased by 236,000 workers in February after growing by 119,000 in January, the Labor Department reported earlier this month. The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008, from 7.9 percent.

Claims numbers may increase next month as Lockheed Martin Corp., Raytheon Co. and other companies that do business with the U.S. government prepare for leaner times. Under a 2011 budget agreement, federal agencies’ spending authority was cut by $85 billion this fiscal year in a process known as sequestration. The reductions are expected to total $1.2 trillion over the next decade.

Raytheon Co. this week said it would consolidate its businesses and shed about 200 employees.

“As we continue to operate in an increasingly competitive budget environment, our ability to enhance our operations, expand our global reach and coordinate our development opportunities is critical to our success,” Chief Executive Officer William Swanson said in a March 25 statement. The company, based in Waltham, Massachusetts, specializes in homeland security, defense and communications systems.

The Defense Department has said that as many as 750,000 of its civilian workers may be forced to work fewer hours and take the equivalent of a 20 percent pay cut.

Claims may “rise a little bit as we get into April because we’re likely to see some job cuts related to the sequester,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report.


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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Vie Mar 29, 2013 8:17 am


<H1 class=entry-title>California, estado eminentemente democrata y casi PRIista... Quinta economia mas grande del mundo... deberia ser el modelo economico a emular de lo que puede el mandato izquierdista. Sin mebargo, vemos lo bien que les han funcionado esas politicas al "Estado Dorado"...


</H1>


CA Suffers Highest Unemployment Rate in the Nation



March 26, 2013 By John Seiler


Probably for the first time since it became a state in 1850, California now suffers the nation’s worst unemployment rate, at 9.8 percent in January. It’s tied with Rhode Island for that number, although R.I. has been improving faster. So next month California could win the booby prize all by itself.

The 9.8 percent rate is the same as the previous month, December 2012. And 9.8 percent itself is a high number. Even Silicon Valley’s unemployment rate was 8.2 percent, up from 7.8 percent in December.

Unemployment has been at 9.8 percent or higher since Feb. 2009 — three years of joblessness and stagnation. (No son 3. Mas bien todo el cuatrenio conocido como el "Obamanato")...

Nevada’s unemployment, which had been higher than California’s, dropped to 9.7 percent in January.

U.S. unemployment wasn’t that great, either, at 7.9 percent in January 2013. It improved to 7.7 percent in February. (State data are not available yet for February.)

What we’re seeing is the effect of the massive California tax increases digging in. Rich people, hit with the new 13.3 percent top state income tax rate, have less money to invest in business and jobs creation. In campaigning for theProposition 30 tax increase, Gov. Jerry Brown demanded that rich people “pay their fair share.” What he didn’t say was that rich people are the economy’s major investors. Taking more of their money would mean less investment in California businesses and jobs.

And the Prop. 30 sales tax increase also grabbed another $1 billion from the productive economy. That led to reduced sales, meaning fewer jobs in retail.

Look at the following graph, where the Nevada unemployment rate (red line) shoots up fast in the late 2000s, rising well above California’s (blue line). Nevada was hit harder even than California by the real estate crash. But then notice Nevada’s unemployment rate begins decreasing faster.


It’s especially outrageous that Brown has said almost nothing about jobs creation in his more than two years back in the governor’s chair. His priorities are funneling more money to his “troops,” as he calls government-union members; funding such boondoggles as the California High-Speed Rail Authority; and imposing AB 32 and other draconian, jobs-killing environmental edicts. If you criticize him, he brands you a “declinist.

Meanwhile, productive people, including the wealthy to avoid that 13.3 percent top rate, continue fleeing the state.
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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Jue Abr 04, 2013 9:39 am

El gran lider sigue dando los resultados esperados.. Esto de Reuters:

Unemployment benefits claims jump to 4-month high





8:51a.m. EDT April 4, 2013

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid rose to a four-month high last week, although the increase partly reflects seasonal distortions around the spring holidays.

The number was higher than expected and though there is volatility in the figure at this time of year it follows other reports this week that the labor market may be starting to weaken.

The Labor Department says weekly applications increased 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 385,000. That is the highest level since late November. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose to 354,250.

A Labor Department spokesman says it can be difficult to seasonally adjust the figures during the Easter holiday because the timing of the holiday varies from year to year. Economists warned before the report that the data could be volatile.

Applications are a proxy for layoffs. The recent increases could suggest that companies are cutting jobs, possibly because of steep government spending cuts that began on March 1. Other reports have pointed to that possible trend, although most economists have said that any reductions are likely temporary.

The government will issue the March employment report Friday. The unemployment rate in February was 7.7%.

Job growth has picked up in recent months. Employers added an average of 200,000 jobs per month from November through February. That's nearly double the average from last spring.

Stronger economic growth this year has spurred more hiring. A steady housing recovery has boosted home construction and prices. Higher home prices make Americans feel wealthier, which can spur more spending.

In February, consumer spending rose by the most in five months. And consumer confidence improved in March from the previous month, according to a survey released last week by the University of Michigan.

Two reports Wednesday, however, suggested companies may have grown more cautious last month. Services companies grew in March but at a slower pace than in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group. Service firms, which include retailers, hotels, restaurants and financial companies, cut back on hiring and a measure of new orders fell.

And private employers added fewer jobs in March compared with February, according to payroll processor ADP. Construction firms didn't add any positions after three months of strong gains.

Several economists lowered their forecasts for hiring in March after Wednesday's reports. Still, many analysts cautioned that the ADP is not always an accurate predictor of the government's more comprehensive figures.
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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

Mensaje por Charlie319 el Vie Abr 05, 2013 11:25 am

Los numeros no son buenos. De hecho, hay quien los califica de descepcionantes... Esto del NYTimes:



Hiring in U.S. Tapers Off as Economy Fails to Gain Speed

By CATHERINE RAMPELL



The United States economy posted disappointing job growth in March.

The nation’s employers increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month, compared with 268,000 in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday. It was the slowest pace of growth since last June and less than half of what economists expected.

It was also the third consecutive spring in which employers tapered off their hiring, even after adjusting the numbers for seasonal changes. Economists have started calling the phenomenon the “spring swoon.”

“The general tenor of the report underscores what our overall data have been indicating — a growing but not accelerating economy,” said Steven Blitz, director and chief economist at ITG Investment Research.

The unemployment rate, which comes from a different survey, ticked down to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent, but primarily because more people dropped out of the labor force, not because more people got jobs.

The labor force participation rate has not been this low — 63.3 percent — since 1979, a time when women were less likely to be working. Baby boomer retirements may account for part of the slide, but discouragement about job prospects in a mediocre economy still seems to be playing a large role, economists say.

The drop in the participation rate has been centered on younger workers,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc., “many of whom have given up hope of finding a decent job and are instead continuing in school and racking up enormous amounts of student debt, which has contributed to the recent surge in consumer credit outstanding.”

Stock market indexes were down sharply at the start of Friday’s trading.

Still, as always, economists cautioned not to read too much into one month’s report, because the numbers will inevitably be revised.

“Remember that we’ve had a pattern of upward revisions,” said John Ryding, the chief economist at RDQ Economics, noting that the government on Friday revised January and February’s net growth upward by a total of 61,000 jobs.

“Before we read too much into it, bear in mind we have at least two more cracks of the whip before the number is really finalized,” he added.

March’s job gains were concentrated in professional and business services and health care, while the government again shed workers, as it has been doing for most of the last four years. Economists expect more government layoffs in the months ahead as the effects of Congress’s across-the-board budget cuts make their way through the system. This so-called sequestration process does not seem to have appreciably affected the numbers in March though. Meanwhile, some policy makers have started to publicly address deficiencies in the quality of the jobs being created by the private sector, in addition to their quantity.

It’s important to look at the types of jobs that are being created because those jobs will directly affect the fortunes and challenges of households and neighborhoods as well as the course of the recovery,” said Sarah Bloom Raskin, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, in a recent speech.

Relatively low-wage sectors like food services and retail have accounted for a large share of the job growth in the last few years; a report in August from the National Employment Law Project, a liberal advocacy group, found that a majority of jobs lost during the downturn were in the middle range of wages, and a majority of those added during the recovery have been low paying.

Ms. Raskin also expressed concern about temporary-help jobs, which account for a growing share of total employment.

Usually an increase in temp hiring is considered a good thing, at least at the start of a recovery, because it indicates that employers are thinking about taking on permanent workers. So far, though, employers seem to be sticking with those temporary contracts.

“Temporary help is rapidly approaching a new record,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, who noted that there was also a rapid increase in temp hiring during the boom years of the ‘90s. “That of course means more flexibility for employers, and less job security for workers.”

Perhaps more distressingly, 7.6 million workers who want full-time work still can find only part-time work, and their missing work hours do not count toward the official unemployment rate. The number of workers in involuntary unemployment fell slightly from February, but is still about where it was a year ago.

“You gotta do what you gotta do,” said Amie Crawford, 56, of Chicago. After four months spent fruitlessly looking for a new job as an interior designer, a middle-class career she had practiced for 30 years before the recession, she accepted a part-time cashier position at a quick-service health food cafe called the Protein Bar.

She keeps asking for more hours, but her manager’s response is always the same: “He tells me, ‘I try to give you as many hours as I can, but everybody wants as many hours as they can,’ ” said Ms. Crawford.

People like Ms. Crawford are the lucky ones, at least compared with the workers who are still pounding the pavement and may have no source of income at all. Long-term unemployment — joblessness lasting more than six months — has been a persistent problem and could permanently affect workers’ skills, networks and employability.

This seems to be a long-term sleeper crisis too, as we think about long-term unemployed workers who are in midlife and older workers who are likely dipping into retirement savings in order to stay afloat,” said Christine L. Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project. “We’re setting ourselves up for somewhere, 10 years down the road, when a lot of retirees who didn’t expect to live in poverty are going to be in poverty.”
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Re: Las cifras del Desempleo

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